England’s chief medical officer played down the prospects of a swift lifting of the coronavirus lockdown today.
Professor Chris Whitty said that discussions about moving on to the next stage of the response to the pandemic would be premature until the nation has passed the peak number of deaths.
He downplayed reports that this figure could be reached this weekend as he returned to fronting the daily news conference, following a week in self isolation.
Flanking Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab he also warned people not to expect too much, too soon, from antibody tests that could give those who have had coronavirus and built up immunity, a way to return to normal life.
He said: ‘The key thing is to get to the point where we are confident we have reached the peak and this is now beyond the peak and at that point I think it is possible to have a serious discussion about all the things we need to do step-by-step to move to the next phase of managing this.
‘But I think to start having that discussion until we’re confident that that’s where we’ve got to, would I think be a mistake.’
The UK has declared 439 more deaths caused by the coronavirus today, taking the total to 5,373, and 3,802 new positive tests have pushed the number of patients up to 51,608.
Professor Chris Whitty said that such tests, which would show if someone has has a minor case of the infection and recovered, will be more effective ‘later in the epidemic’
Officials have reportedly bought test kits from the Chinese companies Wondo and Alltest but found that they are not accurate enough for official use
He added: ‘We’ve got to remember, just from the health point of view and clearly there are wider social and economic issues as well, that there are at least four different kinds of mortality and ill health we need to take into account over the period of this epidemic.
‘There’s the direct effects of people dying from coronavirus, there’s the indirect effects of the NHS, if it were to become overwhelmed and therefore unable to provide emergency care for either coronavirus or other areas, and all the activities we’re doing at the moment are to make sure that both of those are minimised.
‘But it is really important also to remember that there will be effects from the fact that some healthcare has had to be postponed to make room for this within the NHS and of course anything that has an impact on the socio-economic status, particularly of people who are more deprived, will have a long-term health impact as well and we have to, in our exit strategy, balance all of these different elements which to some extent can be in tension.’
In a glimmer of hope after a dark week for Britain, the number of people dying of COVID-19 has now fallen for two days in a row and today dropped 30 per cent from 621 yesterday.
Today’s death count is the lowest since March 31, last Tuesday, when it was 381, and marks a 39 per cent fall from the UK’s worst day so far, Saturday, when the deaths of 708 people were recorded.
The number of new cases is also lower than it was for almost all of last week, with the 3,802 new positive tests 2,101 fewer than 5,903 yesterday and only the second time since March that the number has been below 4,000.
England accounted for 403 of the fatalities while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland declared 36 more deaths between them over the past day.
Discussing the antibody tests, which would show if someone has has a minor case of the infection and recovered, he said they would will be more effective ‘later in the epidemic’.
Because of the slow way antibodies are generated and the relatively small percentage of the population likely to have caught coronavirus so far, the tests are currently of limited use, he told the daily press conference.
It came after another top scientist checking the tests for the Government said it could be a month before a workable one is available.
Professor Sir John Bell, from Oxford University, said the testing kits he has examined so far ‘have not performed well’ and ‘none of them would meet the criteria for a good test’.
Addressing the public this afternoon Prof Whitty, an epidemiologist, said: ‘At this point in time we would expect quite a small proportion of the population has probably got antibodies.
‘There’s two reasons for that. There’s the proportion actually infected and then there’s a period of time between somebody getting an infection and antibodies being routinely detectable.
‘And it depends which kind of antibody you’re talking about how soon that is.
‘Most of the labs that have looked at this would say 21 to 28 days would be the kind of timescale you’d be talking about.
‘They do tend to be more effective later in the epidemic.’
Addressing the public this afternoon after completing his own coronavirus self-isolation, Prof Whitty, an epidemiologist, said: ‘At this point in time we would expect quite a small proportion of the population has probably got antibodies
Downing Street said today it will seek refunds from companies that cannot improve the failed antibody tests ordered by the Government.
‘No test so far has proved to be good enough to use,’ the PM’s official spokesman said, raising accuracy concerns.
‘We continue to work with the testing companies, we’re in a constant dialogue with them and we give feedback to them when their products fail to meet the required standards.
‘If the tests don’t work then the orders that we placed will be cancelled and wherever possible we will recover the costs.’
The head of testing at Public Health England also said none of the tests it had evaluated were good enough for public use.
Professor John Newton, director of health improvement at Public Health England, said the tests were not accurate enough on people who had only had mild illnesses.
The tests are considered to be crucial to ending Britain’s nationwide lockdown because they will give authorities a clear picture of how many people have caught the virus already and shaken it off.
Currently, statistical guesswork is the only way of working out how many people might already be immune and therefore potentially safe to return to normal life.
Estimates suggest up to five million people could have been infected to date.
The figures come as Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in hospital with ‘persistent’ symptoms after he was admitted last night because his fever had lasted for 10 days after he was diagnosed.
He spent the night in hospital but aides say he is still trying to work and he said in a tweet he is ‘in good spirits’.