Coronavirus could be completely wiped out in Britain by September 30

Coronavirus could be completely wiped out in the UK on September 30, according to modelling from scientists.

A team at the Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the pandemic to pinpoint the date cases will die out in countries hardest hit by the disease.

They predict a total eradication of the bug in Britain with no new cases – or a second wave – at all from the end of September.

The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11.

The model by the Singapore University of Technology predicts the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30

The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11

The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country, as of May 12.

By plotting the acceleration and deceleration rates of each country’s outbreak, the scientists have conjured up a prediction of when the virus will wane.

In other developments to Britain’s coronavirus crisis today:

Two new witness testimonies has reignited calls for Dominic Cummings to be sacked;
The first claimed to have seen Mr Cummings at a town 30 miles away from his parents’ Durham farm where he was self-isolating with his wife and child;
A second witness then said they sighted Mr Cummings back in Durham on April 19, five days after he had returned to work in Westminster;
It emerged that travel firms are already planning to exploit a loophole in the 14-day quarantine period by flying holidaymakers into UK via Dublin (which is exempt from new isolation rules);
Labour leader Keir Starmer revealed his children have attended school throughout the coronavirus crisis as he called for classes to resume ‘as soon as possible’;
Employers were told they will have to pay 25 per cent of wages of furloughed staff from August, raising fears of a wave of redundancies;
Boris Johnson will drop drop the ‘track’ in his ‘test, track and trace’ system that is designed to get Britain out lockdown because the NHSX app will not be ready for weeks.

This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands. Pictured: People meeting up in Wandsworth, London, today

Britain announces 282 more coronavirus deaths including a 12-year-old child – taking official number of victims to 36,675

By CONNOR BOYD HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE

Britain today announced 282 more coronavirus deaths, including a 12-year-old with an undisclosed underlying health condition – taking the UK’s total fatalities to 36,675.

Today’s death jump – which takes into account all settings – is the lowest recorded on a Saturday since March 21 (56), three days before the UK went into lockdown.

The 12-year-old victim passed away in a hospital in England and becomes the fourth child under the age of 15 to succumb to the virus in the UK. Britain’s youngest victim was a six-week-old baby who died earlier this month.

Just 157 deaths in the last 24 hours were in hospitals, with the rest of the fatalities registered in the wider community and care homes – where the virus is still running rampant.

The figures were announced by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps at tonight’s Downing Street press conference, where he also revealed 2,959 more Britons had tested positive for the disease.

This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands and placed millions under lockdown, will come as relief for many.

Britain today announced 282 more coronavirus deaths, including a 12-year-old with an undisclosed underlying health condition – taking the UK’s total fatalities to 36,675.

However, researchers noted the predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including the restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country.

They write: ‘The wicked and uncertain nature of this pandemic makes the intent for prediction accuracy misleading.’

‘The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are uncertain by nature,’ the report states.

‘Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.’

The study also found predictive monitoring in early May showed the US – and second worst-hit country Brazil- could still suffer for the remainder of the year, without stricter restrictions or a vaccine.

For Italy, which once led the world in the number of coronavirus cases, could recover by October 24, according to modeling as of May 8.

In Trafalgar Square, people were out and about today. Some sat on the steps leading up to the National Gallery

A large group of surfers gathered together to make the most of the waves at Bournemouth Pier. Lockdown measures were eased this month

Coronavirus track-and-trace army of 25,000 recruits will go into action this week – if the ‘world-beating’ app’s glitches can be solved

By Glen Owen and Stephen Adams and Jake Ryan For The Mail On Sunday

Ministers will launch the vaunted new track-and-trace programme this week with an army of 25,000 recruits battling to lead Britain out of the coronavirus crisis.

The plan – to track down those who have been in close contact with Covid-19 victims and isolate them to stop the chain of transmission – will swing into action as ‘part of the largest virtual call centre operation in the country’.

Using a model which has proved effective in other countries and which has been trialled with an app on the Isle of Wight, tracers will contact those who test positive for the virus.

The coronavirus track-and-trace programme will be launched by ministers this week with 25,000 recruits helping out to operate the system

The tracing app has been successfully used in other countries and was recently trialled by the UK in the Isle of Wight

They will then ask them for information about people they have been in prolonged contact with who may have been exposed – most likely household members or workplace colleagues.

A No 10 spokesman said: ‘A test-and-trace system lets us identify and isolate new infections so that we can control the spread of this virus, which will be vital while coronavirus remains present in the UK.

‘As we continue on the road to recovery this will mean that, in time, lockdown will no longer be necessary for the majority of the public and instead it will be possible for there to be a targeted lockdown for a small number of people.’

The announcement came as Baroness Dido Harding, appointed to lead the programme, was revealed to have sat on the board of the Jockey Club, which gave the controversial green light for the Cheltenham Festival.

It was blamed for causing a spike in Covid-19 infections in the area after 60,000 racegoers descended on the course on March 10 for the four-day event.

Baroness Dido Harding (pictured), who gave the green light to let the Cheltenham Festival go ahead in March, is leading the contact tracing app planning process

Prime Minister Boris Johnson (pictured) promised MPs that a ‘world-beating’ tracing system would be in place by June 1, though the recruitment and training of contact tracers has been ‘chaotic’

How many Covid alerts have been issued by the NHS track-and-trace app being tested on the Isle of Wight? Only ONE person has been found… and it’s the local MP’s girlfriend

By Ian Gallagher for The Mail on Sunday

Early on Friday morning an orderly queue formed outside the newly-opened Paradice Ice Cream Parlour on the High Street in Cowes.

Nearby a cafe was doing steady trade selling coffee, tea and pastries, while along the harbour, a group of fishermen sat in the sunshine, six feet apart, hoping to land a bass or two.

This was the Isle of Wight – home of the NHS’s Covid-19 track and trace experiment – dipping its toe into the ‘new normal’.

More than a fortnight ago, the island began testing an app which aims to halt the spread of the disease by identifying the infected and alerting those with whom they’ve come into close contact.

But having spoken to dozens of islanders the only person The Mail on Sunday found who had heard of anyone receiving an alert was the Isle of Wight’s MP Bob Seely.

His girlfriend, he says, was notified – told she’d been in contact with someone showing symptoms of coronavirus.

She was urged to follow health advice. Cynics suggested the trial was doomed from the outset because the islanders would struggle with the technology.

Yet acting for the greater good and proving they know their way around a smartphone, some 55,000 have downloaded the app, a figure greatly exceeding expectations.

Although the population is 140,000, there are 80,000 smartphone owners available to use the app. In the days after the app was launched, islanders talked of little else.

‘We’d come out after shopping and straight away check our phones to see if we’d received an alert,’ says Maxine Simpson, 60.

‘The supermarket, we reckoned, was the most dangerous place. I don’t know anyone who has got one. I still check after leaving the supermarket.’

She was with her mother, Elizabeth Brittan, 86, who has the app, and her 37-year-old daughter Emma Appell – three generations of the same family meeting for the first time since lockdown began.

‘We feel as though we’ve done our bit,’ said Mrs Brittan.

‘It would be great if the app can do some good,’ adds Emma. Across the island posters declare: ‘Isle of Wight – Lead the Way.’

An investigation by The Mail on Sunday has also revealed that the recruitment and training of contact tracers for the programme has been chaotic, despite Boris Johnson’s pledge to MPs that a ‘world-beating’ system would be in place by June 1.

Insiders who volunteered for senior ‘clinical’ contact tracing positions told this newspaper how the programme has been beset by teething problems.

In one case, an environmental health officer (EHO) – who had himself designed a contact tracing system for infectious diseases – gave up on being recruited after ‘getting lost’ in NHS bureaucracy.

‘It was like banging your head against a brick wall,’ he said.

In another, a nurse said she could not undertake online training because the modules were not ready yet. ‘It’s been incredibly frustrating,’ she added.

And basic technical issues, such as contact tracers working from home who found themselves unable to log in to the computer system, are continuing to dog efforts.

Ministers had been warned by their scientific advisers of the importance of having manual tracers to keep a lid on coronavirus – and how their original plan, which relied on unqualified call centre staff on minimum wage, would not work.

It led them to increase the number of clinical contact tracers required – people such as doctors, nurses and EHOs – from 3,000 to 7,500 in what experts see as tacit recognition that the original scheme was flawed.

Despite the improvements, however, many clinical contact tracers have been disappointed by their experience with recruiters at NHS Professionals.

The EHO, who is recently retired, was approved but said he was then advised to contact NHS organisations himself to offer his services.

‘I couldn’t find any that were recruiting contact tracers,’ he said. The EHO then sought advice from NHS Professionals. ‘I tried to call their number 12 to 15 times over four days but no one picked up.

‘On one occasion, I let it ring for 40 minutes,’ he said, adding that in the end he gave up trying to offer his services. ‘It all seemed a bit of a mess. I’m happy to help but I’m not desperate for the work and, at the end of the day, it’s just not worth the grief.’

The nurse said that after signing up last week the online training modules ‘simply weren’t there’. She added: ‘It’s concerning we’re having to wait for the training when we’re supposed to be carrying this out as a matter of urgency.

‘Has it been thought through? It doesn’t feel like it – it comes across as though they’re making it up as they go along.’

A Department for Health and Social Care spokesman disputed the EHO’s account of recruitment problems, adding: ‘We are rolling out this programme at unprecedented speed to tackle coronavirus outbreaks and, over time, help us to safely lift some lockdown measures.’