Donald Trump has all but formally announced his intentions to run for the presidency again in 2024, and his team is honing in on taking back five states Biden won in 2020 that he’d won in 2016.
The former president’s shadow campaign team polled Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which were decided in favor of President Biden by 3 percentage points or less. The team found that in Georgia, Trump would be ahead by 3 points, 8 points in Arizona, 12 points in Michigan, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 10 points in Wisconsin, if the race were held today.
Together, the states represent 73 electoral votes. Trump lost to Biden in 2020 by 74.
Trump has still refused to concede his loss, and challenged the election results in all five of the states, going to the greatest lengths to overturn Biden’s win in Arizona.
Donald Trump has all but formally announced his intentions to run for the presidency again in 2024, and his team is honing in on taking back five states Biden won in 2020 that he’d won in 2016
The difference is even more stark when voters are asked whether the approved of Trump’s job in office and whether they approve of Biden’s job in office, signaling that the president’s behavior after his loss could have turned some voters off.
In Arizona, Trump’s approval of his job in office is 10 percentage points higher than Biden’s, in Georgia, 9 points, in Michigan, 14, Pennsylvania, 11 and Wisconsin 13, according to the poll, obtained by Politico.
The sample size was 600 likely voters in each battleground state, with a 4% margin of error, but the results could entice the former president even further to press on with a third run for office.
The poll, commissioned by ‘Make America Great Again, Again!,’ was conducted by top GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio. His polls have not always been favorable to Trump.
During the 2020 campaign, Fabrizio’s polls were reportedly so bleak for the president that Trump’s aides said he would at times refuse to speak with Fabrizio. Trump would seek other pollsters who would give him more favorable numbers, according to Politico.
Since his loss, Trump has held four rallies and endorsed dozens of federal, state and local candidates as his influence continues to dominate the Republican Party. Still, Trump’s aides have reportedly convinced him to hold off announcing a new run for office.
In another sign Trump is gearing up for another run, as top top Republican donors will descend on Palm Beach, Fla. when his super PAC ‘Make America Great Again, Again!’ holds its biggest fundraiser to date on Dec. 2 at Mar-a-Lago.
Biden has also said he intends to run for reelection in 2024. The PACT supporting him, Unite The Country, has similarly been focused on the five battleground states Trump is focusing on, first for the midterm elections then for the presidential.
What’s more is Unite the Country CEO Steve Schale said he does not doubt Trump’s polling citing Biden’s low approval numbers. But he noted that polling a year ahead of midterms is not indicative of what will happen in a presidential election in three years.
‘There are historical headwinds we’re facing, that any president faces during a midterm: five of the last seven midterm elections have been wave cycles for the other party,’ Schale told Politico.
He pointed to President Obama’s reelection win after Republicans dominated in the 2010 midterms. Schale also predicted if Republicans retake Congress they will veer too far right and hurt Trump’s chances of winning.
The new Trump polling comes at an opportune moment when Biden’s poll numbers have tanked thanks to fast-rising inflation and high gas prices.
Democrats suffered embarrassing losses across the state of Virginia last month, which Shale said in a memo to donors should serve as a ‘wake-up call’ for the party and pledged a seven-figure ad buy touting Biden’s accomplishments in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The polling also suggests that Trump is more trusted in the swing states to handle issues like federal spending, taxes, the border, Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation, rebuilding the economy and even infrastructure, Biden’s landmark legislative push.
Voters were split on the recently-passed bipartisan infrastructure package, though they did not seem to favor the larger Build Back Better agenda making its way through Congress. The White House, however, has pointed to polling showing most Americans favor the package once its individual components are explained.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed reports this week that Biden has been telling allies he plans to run again in 2024, despite the fact he’ll be 82 years old by then.
Biden, 79, has said both publicly and privately he will run for a second term in 2024. But the behind-the-scenes outreach shows how jittery Democrats are about their leader.
Rumors have swirled about who would replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2024 should he not be on the ballot.
But some Democrats are even saying it doesn’t matter whether or not Biden runs because anyone in their party could beat Donald Trump should the former president make good on his threat to run again.
The president’s advisers are making the calls to party faithfuls, The Washington Post reported while Biden privately told donors at a virtual fundraiser this month he is running again.
His travel schedule appears geared toward a second bid – he was in New Hampshire last week, the home of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. He was also in Michigan, another important 2024 state, and travels to North Carolina on Monday. He regularly visits Pennsylvania, another big state if he plans on seeking a second term. And he’s made stops in Florida and Ohio.
He would formally announce his bid for a second term after next year’s midterm election.