Finland will decide whether to join NATO within weeks

Finland may make the call on whether to join NATO in just weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a decision possible ‘during this spring’.

The country may join the transatlantic military alliance despite warnings of retaliation and ‘military and political consequences’ from the Kremlin.

Prime Minister Sanna Marin this weekend said: ‘Both joining (NATO) and not joining are choices that have consequences.

‘We need to assess both the short-term and long-term effects. At the same time, we must keep in mind our goal: ensuring the security of Finland and Finns in all situations.’

Marin added that Finland’s relationship with neighboring Russia has changed irreversibly after the assault on Ukraine, and ‘it takes a lot of time and work for confidence to be restored’.

Prime Minister Sanna Marin this weekend said: ‘Both joining (NATO) and not joining are choices that have consequences’

Finland shares an 830-mile (1,340-kilometre) border with Russia, the longest by any European Union member.

It has remained militarily non-aligned, therefore not engaging in war or conflict, since the end of the Cold War for fear of provoking Moscow.

This weekend the country’s foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said Russia’s actions in Ukraine have ‘totally changed the security landscape in Finland’.

He told Kyodo News that Finland must be prepared for ‘more negative military scenarios’. 

This comes despite hints of retaliation from Moscow should the country join NATO.

Last month a Russian politician warned of ‘serious military and political consequences’ if Finland and Sweden joined the alliance. 

Russian Foreign Ministry Second European Department Director Sergei Belyayev told Interfax: ‘It is obvious that Finland and Sweden’s joining NATO, which is a military organization in the first place, would have serious military and political consequences requiring use to revise the entire range of relations with these countries and take retaliatory measures.’ 

Last month Finland also detected interference with passenger jets’ GPS signals near Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave and the country’s eastern border with Moscow. 

Finnish airline Finnair said its pilots had noticed the disturbances near Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between NATO members Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic Sea’s east coast.

Other aircraft reported unusual disturbances in GPS signals near Finland’s eastern border with Russia, with planes unable to land at Savonlinna airport due to the interference. 

The interference with planes' GPS signals began soon after Finland's President Sauli Niinisto met his US counterpart Joe Biden in Washington on March 4

The interference with planes’ GPS signals began soon after Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto met his US counterpart Joe Biden in Washington on March 4

In February Helsinki also received letters from Russia, demanding clarity on the Nordic nation’s future regarding security. 

Haavisto then told The Times the instance ‘reminded (him) of the Cold War’, when the country was used to ‘this kind of Russian letter asking for ‘consultations’.

Until now, nothing was able to persuade Finland or Sweden to join NATO, throughout the Cold War from 1947 to 1989, and in the decades since. 

But in March it appeared that Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine increased public support in Finland for joining the NATO alliance to record levels, according to a poll.

A total of 62 percent of respondents in Finland had supported their government applying for NATO membership.

According to the survey which was commissioned by Finland’s public broadcaster Yle, this is up from 53 percent in the same poll which had been released two weeks ago.

Later that month another poll from newspaper Helsingin Sanomat also suggested a majority of the nation is in favour of joining NATO, with 54 per cent responding they would back the decision.

This weekend the country's foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said Russia's actions in Ukraine have 'totally changed the security landscape in Finland'

This weekend the country’s foreign minister Pekka Haavisto said Russia’s actions in Ukraine have ‘totally changed the security landscape in Finland’

In neighboring Sweden, a similar recent poll showed those in favor of NATO membership outnumber those against. 

It comes as Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto said he believes there is consistent ‘popular support’ for joining the alliance.

Speaking to Yle on Wednesday, he said: ‘NATO needs to know that there is popular support. We already have that, in my view.’ 

However last month he warned that Finland could face ‘disruptive’ Russian behaviour including cyber hacks and potential border violations if it tries to join. 

Niinisto said: ‘We don’t even know all the possibilities for hybrid influencing that someone may invent. The entire world of information technology is vulnerable’, according to AP.

Vladimir Putin has used NATO’s eastward expansion as one of several justifications for his brutal war, and has demanded Ukraine pursues neutrality as a condition to withdraw.

Were Finland to join NATO, it would become the sixth state to share a land border with Russia 

Meanwhile, NATO countries have repeatedly refused requests from Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky to directly aid his country’s fight against Moscow’s invading forces out of fear of being dragged into a wider conflict with Russia.

One week into the Russian invasion, Marin said a planned debate in parliament the following day would cover the situation in Ukraine and was not intended as a ‘wider conversation on Finland’s policy regarding military alignment or non-alignment’. 

Since the assault on Ukraine, Finnish leaders have held multiple meetings with their US and Nordic counterparts regarding Finnish defence and security.