Scott Morrison’s unpopularity cost the Liberal Party a winnable election against an opposition that lost millions of votes to the Greens and independents.
Labor won a comfortable victory on Saturday that will likely send Anthony Albanese to The Lodge with a majority government.
However, its primary vote was just 32.8 per cent, a 0.5 per cent swing against it compared to 2019, and only picked up a dozen seats at most.
Instead, the 5.5 per cent swing away from the Coalition went to The Greens and ‘teal’ independents who snatched nine new seats between them.
Nowhere was this more apparent than the seat of Ryan in Brisbane, where the Liberal MP was replaced with The Greens’ Elizabeth Watson-Brown.
Scott Morrison’s unpopularity cost the Liberal Party a winnable election against an opposition that lost millions of votes to the Greens and independents
Since its creation in 1974 the Liberals have won this seat at every general election, although they did lose it briefly to Labor in a 2001 by-election but regained it later that year.
The Greens picked up a 10.2 per cent swing to finish in second place on the primary vote with 30.5 per cent, with Labor going backwards 2.2 per cent.
Ms Watson-Brown won 52.9 per cent of the final vote with Labor preferences.
This lineup of female candidates, bankrolled by millionaire Simon Holmes a Court, advocated strong climate change action and other progressive policies and knocked off six moderate Liberals in inner-city electorates.
Political analysts noted these trends showed Labor didn’t really win the lection.
Instead it was the Coalition that lost it, as the huge swing to minor parties showed voters were frustrated with both options – not simply enamoured with Labor.
Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown (left) celebrates snatching away the formerly safe Liberal seat of Ryan along with Brisbane City Council Councillor Jonathan Sri (right)
Monique Ryan, here seen with her children, headlined the rise of the teal independents by taking the prize Liberal seat of Kooyong off the former treasurer Josh Frydenberg
Political reporter Samantha Maiden said Mr Morrison ‘really screwed it up’ and the Liberals could have won due to Labor’s weakness if he wasn’t so unpopular.
She said Mr Morrison was particularly unpopular with women, which was a decisive factor in his downfall.
‘The data is pretty clear that it was also a defeat that was driven by women,’ she said.
‘It was women who decided that they weren’t happy with what was on offer. It was women who helped to elect a record number of female independents.’
Ms Watson-Brown said she sensed the shift in mood among once Liberal voters before the election.
‘Many people came up to me at pre-poll and said to me, “Elizabeth, I am going to vote for you this time. I had been a long-term Liberal voter and I feel completely abandoned”,’ she said.
This analysis received support from Dave Sharma, the outgoing MP for the wealthy seat of Wentworth, once held by former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Allegra Spender (right) holds on tight to her sister Bianca Spender while running for the seat of Wentworth in Sydney, which she successfully claimed from Liberal Dave Sharma
Teal independent Allegra Spender, the daughter of designer Carla Zampatti, who the Guardian reported held an election night party packed with young affluent professionals who had soured on the Liberal Party.
‘Polling showed that he (Morrison) had a negative approval rating in seats like mine, and he was a drag on the vote,’ Mr Sharma told the ABC on Wednesday.
‘When you spoke to people, it was almost visceral.
‘They would say he’s too religious, they didn’t like that he carried coal into parliament one time.
‘They didn’t believe his sincerity on climate change, they didn’t like our handling of Brittany Higgins’s rape allegations and Grace Tame’s comments; those sorts of things.’
The highest profile Liberal taken out by an independent was Josh Frydenberg who lost to Monique Ryan in Kooyong, a seat with a prestigious Liberal pedigree of former members.
A clutch of other once solid Liberal seats, all held by men, also fell to Teal women, while Zali Stegall easily retained the seat of Warringah which she sensationally snatched off former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott in 2019.
Dave Sharma said that Scott Morrison generated an ‘almost visceral dislike’ among voters in his electorate who did not like his more conservative politics of his handling of various issues
Outgoing finance minister Simon Birmingham admitted the Liberals face an almost ‘impossible’ task to form government if they can’t reclaim the ‘heartland seats’.
Mr Birmingham also believed that women has sent the Liberals a very ‘clear message’ that they needed to pre-select more women.
Former Victorian Liberal deputy state director Tony Barry told the ABC the Liberals had ‘lost their base. We don’t seem to have a natural constituency anymore’.
Ms Steggall said the success of the teals showed the Liberals had lost touch with its once most staunch supporters.
‘The Liberal Party has lost its way when it comes to representing sensible views, [the] sensible centre and has moved so far to the right, it has left so many people disenfranchised,’ Ms Steggall told the Nine Network.