Baseball fans from Tokyo to Tinseltown awoke to some dire news on Thursday: Shohei Ohtani has torn the UCL in his pitching elbow again and could require a second Tommy John surgery.
Not only will this prevent him from pitching for the Los Angeles Angels again in 2023, but it dramatically impacts the market value of baseball’s two-way sensation, who was expected to command a record-breaking deal in free agency this winter. MLB contemporaries such as Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Toronto’s Jordan Romano previously estimated Ohtani’s worth at $600 million, putting him in Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s exclusive neighborhood.
Of course, even at half strength, Ohtani remains baseball’s most explosive offensive force. His 44 home runs lead the majors, while his OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) is a career-best and MLB-leading 1.069. And while the Angels’ season continues to crater in Anaheim, Ohtani remains the favorite to win American League MVP.
But the reality for Japan’s greatest export is undeniably grim: Ohtani may now be forced to take a smaller, short-term contract as a free agent and serve exclusively as a designated hitter as he continues to rehab his beleaguered elbow in 2024.
Unfortunately, the potential for another surgery might jeopardize his pitching career, entirely. And if that’s the case, like Babe Ruth before him, Ohtani could abandon the mound altogether and pour all of his focus into hitting.
Ohtani remains the most feared hitter in baseball, but his future on the mound is in jeopardy
Shohei Ohtani’s impending free agency is giving many Angels fans cause for concern
For now, Ohtani is not rushing into a second Tommy John surgery – a procedure that involves replacing an elbow ligament with a tendon from elsewhere in the patient’s body.
Named for the former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher who successfully recovered from the revolutionary procedure in the mid-1970s, Tommy John surgery has been a blessing for hurlers, including Ohtani.
It was only four years ago that Ohtani had the surgery, which prevented him from pitching for 2019 and all but two games in 2020.
Nevertheless, Ohtani returned to the mound in 2021 and had his best season as a pitcher in 2022 by posting a career-low 2.33 ERA and averaging five strikeouts for every walk.
And he was nearly as brilliant in 2023, ranking among the league leaders in most pitching categories, while moonlighting as baseball’s most feared hitter.
Named for the ex-Dodgers pitcher (pictured) who successfully recovered from the revolutionary procedure in the mid-1970s, Tommy John surgery has been a blessing for hurlers
There was some optimism on Wednesday, thanks to Angels general manager Perry Minasian.
‘If I was to bet on anybody bouncing back, he would be the guy,’ he said. ‘I believe he’ll be back and he’ll be able to do both again at a very high level.’
There are other reasons for Ohtani to believe he can return to the mound.
Texas Rangers hurler Nathan Eovaldi, Chicago White Sox reliever Mike Clevinger, the Dodgers’ Daniel Hudson and the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon have all come back from a second Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler is on the cusp of doing the same for the Dodgers in LA.
Others, though, haven’t been so lucky. Texas’ Jacob deGrom is currently facing that exact predicament as he recovers from a torn UCL. Previously, Cincinnati Reds ace and 1990 World Series MVP Jose Rijo’s career was effectively ended by multiple Tommy John surgeries.
‘[After a single Tommy John procedure] there’s a good chance you’re coming back,’ surgeon Robert Keller told the Washington Post in 2015. ‘You’re probably not as good as you were before, but you’re near to where you should be.
‘When you have a second one, you may not come back, and if you do, you won’t pitch as much and you won’t pitch as long.’
White Sox reliever Mike Clevinger successfully returned from a second Tommy John Surgery
Texas Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is another pitcher who returned from two torn UCLs
And for the Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Mets and every other potential Ohtani suitor, that is a major consideration before extending an offer this winter.
Fox Sports MLB insider Ben Verlander, a former minor league pitcher and the brother of the reigning American League Cy Young, Justin, thinks Ohtani will still command nine-figure offers this winter.
‘His free agency becomes really interesting now,’ Verlander told Fox Sports. ‘This offseason was set to be an unprecedented negotiation. Nobody really knew the kind of contract he would get.
‘Now, we have even less of an idea. I still think we see him get $500 million dollars, if it’s a long-term deal. But we now might see a one- or two-year deal as a placeholder until it’s clear how he recovers from this.’