Boris Johnson today branded coronavirus the ‘worst public health crisis in a generation’ and warned that ‘many more’ people are going to die – but still held off drastic measures.
The Prime Minister said it was clear the disease will continue to spread around the world and people should brace for the ‘reality’ of ‘severe disruption’ for many months.
At a press conference in Westminster, Mr Johnson formally declared that the UK’s tactics have shifted from ‘containing’ the killer disease to merely ‘delaying’ its inevitable spread, after he chaired a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee.
The Government’s new plan urges anyone with even mild coronavirus-like symptoms – a persistent cough or a fever – to quarantine themselves at home and to sleep alone if possible and stay at least two metres from relatives.
The PM has also recommended all overseas school trips be cancelled while people over the age of 70 or those with pre-existing serious medical conditions have been told not to go on cruises.
But he stopped short of more extreme measures such as closing schools and banning mass gatherings which have been adopted in Ireland, Norway, France and Italy in an effort to stem the spread of the virus.
‘At all stages we have been guided by the science. We will do the right thing at the right time,’ Mr Johnson said.
The number of UK cases has risen by 130 and the death toll hit 10 in the last 24 hours, with experts increasingly bracing for turmoil as the overwhelming majority of the population becomes infected and the country develops ‘herd immunity’.
But chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said he believed the true number of infections was likely to be 5,000-10,000 already. He estimated that the UK was four weeks behind the trajectory of the crisis in Italy – which has brought the country to its knees.
The peak of the outbreak in the UK might not come for 10-14 weeks, the experts said – suggesting it will run into June.
Hundreds of thousands of people are attending Cheltenham Festival this week despite many warning against attending large public events due to the potential spread of the virus
The PM said it was clear that the disease will continue to spread around the world and people should brace for the ‘reality’ of ‘severe disruption’ for many months
Mr Johnson insisted comparisons to seasonal flu were wrong.
‘This is more dangerous and it’s going to spread further. And I must level with you and the British public: more families, many more families, are going to lose loved ones before their time,’ he said.
Despite the bloodcurdling warnings, Mr Johnson said the UK would not close schools yet even though government advisers admitted the move would help stem the outbreak.
Advisers said the length of closure necessary to make the measure work could be more than 16 weeks and would at this stage therefore not be feasible.
Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said it was not realistic to expect children to be cooped up that long.
He said: ‘It is true that there is some effect in closing schools but that effect is minimal and actually you would have to do it for 13 to 16 weeks or longer.
‘You do not have to be a very advanced mathematician to work out that the chances of keeping children not speaking to each other or playing with each other are zero.’
Closing down schools could also put elderly grandparents at risk if they were asked to look after children, who are believed to be less susceptible to the most severe form of the disease but can still spread it.
‘The scientific advice is that this could do more harm than good,’ Mr Johnson said.
‘But we are keeping this under review and this could change as the disease spreads. Schools should only close if they are specifically advised to do so.’
Mr Johnson conceded that Scotland was already banning mass gatherings, but suggested there was a ‘particular issue with the resilience of their public services’ north of the border, in a perceived swipe at Nicola Sturgeon after she undermined him by announcing her plans first.
‘We are not saying no to that sort of measures, of course not,’ Mr Johnson said. ‘We are keeping it up our sleeves. But it is very important… that we get the timing right.’
Chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty added: ‘We need to do it at the last point it is reasonable so people maintain their energy and enthusiasm… it is important we do not ask our fellow citizens to do it for longer than makes sense.’
The FTSE plunged by more than 10 per cent today in response to the dramatic US announcement of a travel ban from Europe overnight, and growing global chaos.
And in the latest high-profile victim of the outbreak, BT’s chief executive, Philip Jansen, tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday.
‘Having felt slightly unwell I decided as a precaution to be tested. As soon as the test results were known I isolated myself at home,’ Jansen said in a statement. ‘I’ve met several industry partners this week so felt it was the responsible thing to do to alert them to this fact as soon as I could.’
Jansen said his symptoms seemed mild and he would work remotely over the coming week, avoiding disruption to the business of Britain’s biggest telecoms group.
The UK approach is increasingly at odds with that of other countries, with Ireland joining the list of those closing all schools and colleges and banning mass gatherings.
In the first sign of splits within the UK, Nicola Sturgeon has declared that Scotland will also cancelling events with more than 500 people from the start of next week, saying that they take up too much time for emergency services.
She admitted: ‘These are not easy judgements. They are difficult and complicated.’
The government has also made clear it will not follow Donald Trump’s dramatic overnight move of closing the borders to travellers from mainland Europe.
Instead Mr Johnson seems determined to take a limited response, asking those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Former Cabinet minister Rory Stewart this afternoon accused the PM of ‘smug insular complacency, warning that without quick action there could be 100,000 cases in the UK within the next 24 days.
‘This is at risk of becoming an example of smug insular complacency – refusing to pay any attention to what any other country is doing or the successful public health approach in Asia,’ the London Mayor hopeful said. ‘We should show some humility, learn from others and act now.’
On another day of frantic activity by politicians and health experts around the globe:
- Irish PM Leo Varadkar has declared that schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close for two weeks;
- Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon today declared that she is ‘minded’ to cancel mass gatherings of over 500 people from the start of next week to avoid them sucking up resources for police and health workers;
- The US Congress is shutting the Capitol, House and Senate office buildings to public until April 1 in reaction to coronavirus;
- The Electoral Commission has called for the local and mayoral polls due in May to be postponed until the Autumn;
- The UK and the EU jointly announced that face to face Brexit trade talks next week would not go ahead as planned but they could be conducted using video technology;
- The FTSE 100 fell by more than 9 per cent today as investors were rattled by US travel restrictions imposed by in an attempt to halt the pandemic;
- The Czech Republic is closing its borders to travellers crossing from Germany and Austria and also banning the entry of foreigners coming from other risky countries to contain the coronavirus outbreak;
- Norway and Lithuania are shutting down nurseries, schools and universities for at least two weeks, and Oslo has told workers to stay at least one metre apart in offices;
- Labour has cancelled a conference to announce the results of its leadership contest, saying the replacement for Jeremy Corbyn will now be declared at a ‘scaled back’ event on April 4;
- Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has self-isolated while his wife awaits the results of a coronavirus test;
- The WHO warned that the travel ban announced by Mr Trump will do little to help combat coronavirus in the UK and could backfire by making people complacent;
- Mr Sunak said he made ‘no apology’ for turning on the spending taps to counter the effects of the virus on the UK economy and society;
- A Cabinet minister is awaiting the results of a coronavirus test today, with four other MPs in quarantine after health minister Nadine Dorries became the first politician to be diagnosed with the disease;
- Tube and transport systems were quieter than usual as the public preempted the expected advice from government on restricting social contact;
- Sporting events have been called off, with golf set to be played without crowds and the tennis tour put on hold for six weeks;
- Sittings in Parliament could be scaled back and the authorities are considering closing to visitors amid fears of spread on the estate.
Face masks have been increasingly in evidence on the streets of London (pictured) as fears over coronavirus spread
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (pictured giving a press conference today) said she would be banning public gatherings of more than 500 people, while Donald Trump (right) banned all travel from Europe
Leo Varadkar (pictured in Washington today) has declared schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close for two weeks
Early lockdown ‘can cut coronavirus infections’
Experts have slammed the UK’s lack of action over its 590 coronavirus cases and said that efforts to stop or delay an outbreak could ‘flatten the curve’ of the epidemic, spreading the peak of cases over a longer period of time to prevent sudden large spike in cases which could cripple hospitals (dotted line indicates hospitals’ maximum capacity)
Shocking charts show how the UK Government could prevent hundreds or even thousands of deaths by taking dramatic action now to fight the killer coronavirus and ‘flatten the curve’ of its spiralling epidemic.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson today decided not to move forward in Britain’s fight against COVID-19, declining to close schools, send people home from work or ban large gatherings.
But he is coming under intense scrutiny for refusing to budge – one frustrated scientist warned: ‘Now is the time for the UK government to ban large gatherings, ask people to stop non-essential travel, recommend employers shift to home working and ramp up the response.’
Official advice currently doesn’t go much further than telling citizens to wash their hands even though the UK now has more cases than China did when Wuhan’s 11million people were forced into lockdown.
Scientists and critics are urging the Government to do more to prolong an inevitable surge in cases, saying that a spike of infections could cripple the NHS but spreading the cases over a longer period of time would ‘flatten the curve’ and make it easier for the nation to cope.
An analysis of statistics has shown that areas that acted fast have slashed their death rates by up to eight times compared to those who react after the virus has taken hold.
In South Korea, for example, an area home to 2.5million people was put into lockdown when just 204 people had been diagnosed and one had died. The country now has a death rate of just 0.8 per cent despite more than 7,800 cases.
But in Italy, large-scale lockdowns were not brought in until Sunday, March 8, by which time it had more than 5,800 patients. There are now almost 12,500 and 827 deaths – a death rate of 6.6 per cent.
This graph shows how St Louis, Missouri, kept its death rate significantly lower by starting social distancing measures immediately after the first cases of flu were discovered. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, however, allowed a city parade to go ahead and took two weeks to bring in the same measures – as a result its death rate was considerably higher
Ms Sturgeon said this evening that Scotland was shutting down public events ‘that have the potential to have an impact on our frontline emergency services’.
‘This is not a move that we are making because the science has told us it will have a significant impact on the spread of the virus: on the contrary, the scientists tell us it will not have a significant impact on the spread of the virus – although no significant impact does not equate to no impact at all,’ she said.
‘But there are wider reasons that I consider and have judged that are important in reaching this decision.’
‘Certain events, whether or not they need dedicated ambulance cover, we know that certain events have an impact on our policing and our front-line health services, accident and emergency and ambulance services.
‘At a time when pressure on those services is going to be considerable … it is incumbent on government to do what we can to remove unnecessary burdens on our public services.’
The decision is set to come into force the day after Rangers host Celtic in one of this weekend’s Ladbrokes Premiership fixtures, with the champions currently 13 points clear of their rivals.
Prof Whitty said the UK would not be introducing social distancing measures yet as it was not the right moment within the pandemic.
But he warned that advice would be coming for elderly and vulnerable people to isolate themselves from social gatherings.
He said: ‘The next stage along we are going to want to do a package of things that are about putting social distancing around the people who are older and those with severe health conditions.
‘But we do not think it is appropriate to make a national recommendation for that at the moment because it is too early in the course of the epidemic.
‘If you think about what would happen if you prematurely put elderly or vulnerable in a situation where you’re saying, we really want to cut down on your social interactions, to cut back on your contact with others, it has big practical implications for them and may lead to loneliness and other issues which are clearly very undesirable for them.
‘While we will need to move to that stage, we do not think this is the right moment along the pandemic to do so. But that point will come.’
Eariler, Mr Johnson swiped at political leaders who do not ‘follow the science’.
In comments made before Mr Trump’s announcement, he said many leaders were ‘under a lot of pressure to be seen to act’.
Asked whether the PM knew of Mr Trump’s escalation in advance, Downing Street said today: ‘UK and US officials are in regular contact.’
To fight what is now officially a global pandemic, the Budget handed hospitals a £5billion fighting fund while thousands of firms will be given a business rates holiday to help avert the risk of bankruptcy.
Sick pay will be reformed to ensure that employees are not penalised for going into quarantine.
In a round of interviews today, Mr Sunak told the BBC: ‘I make absolutely no apology for responding in the short term in scale to the immediate threat that we face from coronavirus.
‘I think that’s the right thing to do for the economy, we need to help businesses have a bridge to get to the other side.’
His package came as the Bank of England’s base rate was slashed to an historic low of just 0.25 per cent.
Mr Johnson will confirm today that the UK is switching from a strategy of trying to contain the outbreak to one of trying to delay its worst effects in order to give the NHS more time to cope.
The Prime Minister – one of whose Cabinet ministers went into self-isolation last night along with five other MPs – is also likely to announce a range of social-distancing measures.
However, the government is not expected to go as far as Donald Trump, who yesterday told Americans he was ordering an immediate shut-down of all travel from Europe.
Irish PM Leo Varadkar has declared that schools, colleges and childcare facilities are to close for two weeks.
He made a live statement to the nation from Washington DC, where he is due to meet Mr Trump later as part of the annual St Patrick’s Day programme of events.
‘Unfortunately we must face the tragic reality that some people will die,’ he said.
Mr Varadkar said he was acting on fresh advice from the country’s National Public Health Emergency Team.
‘The virus is all over the world, it will continue to spread but it can be slowed,’ he said.
Dr David Halpern, head of the UK’s Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain’s ‘Nudge Unit’ who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year.
Dr Halpern has revealed ministers are considering a policy of keeping high-risk groups such as the elderly or those with underlying health conditions isolated in care homes or in their own homes over the coming months.
He said: ‘There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows as it will do, where you want to cocoon, to protect those at-risk groups so they don’t catch the disease.
‘By the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity has been achieved in the rest of the population’.
Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance (left) and Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty (right) were at the Cobra meeting
Former Cabinet minister Rory Stewart this afternoon accused the PM of ‘smug insular complacency, warning that without quick action there could be 100,000 cases in the UK within the next 24 days.
Deputy chief medical officer Jenny Harries was asked on the BBC if ‘pretty much everyone will get it eventually’.
‘The thing about a new virus is, of course, nobody has antibodies ready-made to it. This virus is having a field day, the desire will be to infect as many people as it can,’ she said.
Dr Harries said it was possible that ‘up to 80 per cent of the population’ could contract the virus, but added that it was a ‘very high estimate’.
Scottish First minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was not possible to make the virus ‘go away’.
‘This is a serious situation. We cannot make this virus go away. It is highly likely now that significant numbers of us are going to get this virus,’ she said.
‘The vast majority will have very mild illness and the clear focus right now is on doing everything we can to protect those who are more susceptible to serious illness, but we cannot make this go away, we need to focus on how we manage this outbreak, delay the spread and reduce the numbers infected at any one time.’
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme there is ‘no doubt we are not going to be able to contain it for very much longer’ and that efforts will now focus on delaying the spread of the virus to ‘put less pressure on the NHS’.
Speaking hours after world health officials declared the coronavirus a pandemic, Trump repeatedly defended his own actions and vowed the nation would prevail in countering the virus and getting treatment on the market.
‘We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days,’ Trump announced, in a speech from the Oval Office to the nation.
‘The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight,’ he said.
The move was so sudden the acting Homeland Security secretary said he would issue full guidance on how to carry it out within 48 hours.
The White House said the travel restrictions would apply to foreign nationals who have visited 26 European countries – but excluding the UK and Ireland – in the past 14 days.
It will not apply to US citizens, their ‘immediate’ family members or legal permanent residents. But confusion remained over how exactly the rules would apply and in what time zone the deadline would be introduced.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak today said the UK was not following the US example.
‘The advice we are getting is that there is not evidence that interventions like closing borders or travel bans are going to have a material effect on the spread of the infections,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
‘That is why we have taken the decisions that we have.’
A video posted on the No10 Twitter feed yesterday shows Mr Johnson chatting with Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries.
Mr Johnson said: ‘It’s noticeable that there are some countries where they have banned big sporting events and stopped mass gatherings of one kind or another. Tell us why so far the medical advice in this country is not to do that?’
Dr Harries replied that ‘expert modellers’ had looked at what would happen with the virus.
‘In general those sorts of events and big gatherings are not seen as something that is going to have a big effect. So we don’t want to disrupt people’s lives,’ she said.
The FTSE index of Britain’s leading companies fell 365 points or 6.22 per cent to 5,511 shortly after opening today – its lowest level since February 2016.
The falls were in reaction to Mr Trump’s intervention, and came despite the Bank of England slashing interest rates from 0.75 per cent to 0.25 per cent and the Budget plan.
Tube and transport systems seemed quieter than usual today as the public preempted the expected advice from government on restricting social contact
Chancellor Rishi Sunak (pictured on a visit to Leeds General Infirmary today) said he made ‘no apology’ for turning on the spending taps to counter the effects of the virus on the UK economy and society
Speaking before Mr Trump’s speech last night, Mr Johnson said: ‘There’s obviously people under a lot pf pressure – politicians government around the world under a lot of pressure to be seen to act. So they may do things that are not necessarily dictated by the science.’
Dr Harries said: ‘I am absolutely delighted that we are following the science and the evidence.’
She added: ‘We have got very clear advice about when we should intervene and that is exactly what I think we should do.’
Mr Sunak admitted yesterday that the epidemic was now likely to cause ‘temporary disruption to the economy’, with millions of workers having to take time off sick, firms struggling with supply problems and shops and restaurants hit by a dramatic fall in trade.
‘The combination of those effects will have a significant impact on the UK economy,’ he said. ‘But it will be temporary. People will return to work.
‘Supply chains will return to normal. Life will return to normal. For a period, it’s going to be tough. But I’m confident that our economic performance will recover.’
The emergency package, which was only finalised in the early hours of yesterday, overshadowed a series of massive spending decisions that set the Government’s economic course for the next four years.
Mr Sunak pledged to increase total spending by 22 per cent by 2024, taking the size of the state to more than £1trillion for the first time.
Much of the spending will be fuelled by borrowing, with the national debt now on track to top £2trillion by the time of the next election.
There will be a rise in the threshold for paying national insurance that delivers an immediate £100 tax cut for 31million workers.
The OBR yesterday warned that the coronavirus could lead to a prolonged slowdown, adding: ‘Recession this year is quite possible if the spread of coronavirus causes widespread economic disruption.’
Mr Sunak said he was ready to make further interventions to ensure that good businesses were not driven to the wall.
He said yesterday’s £30billion package comprised £12billion of direct spending and £18billion of broader stimulus to the economy.
‘While the world may slow down, we will act here with a response that is brave and bold, taking decisions now for our future prosperity,’ the Chancellor added. ‘We are investing in world class infrastructure, and to lead the world in the industries and technologies of the future.’
Mr Sunak said the ‘central decision’ was to increase spending over existing plans by £175billion.
The overall tax burden will not rise, mainly because of a decision to abandon a cut in corporation tax. The Treasury admitted the spending might not meet earlier fiscal rules.
Some senior Tories voiced reservations. Theresa May said the Conservatives must never fall into Labour’s trap of believing that all problems could be fixed by unconstrained spending.
The former prime minister added: ‘While spending a lot of money may be popular and may seem the natural thing to do, there is of course that necessity of having a realistic assessment of the longer-term impact.
‘[There is] a necessity to ensure that we have that restraint and caution that enables us to make sure the public finances continue to be strong into the future.’