Number of coronavirus cases could have been cut by 66% if China had acted just one WEEK earlier, study claims
- UK researchers concluded that China’s outbreak could have been far worse
- If China had waited another three weeks, cases would have exploded 18-fold
- If they had locked down a week earlier there would be 66 per cent less cases
- 114,325 cases recorded at the end of February could have been 67 times higher without early detection, isolation of infectees, and travel restrictions
- Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
China’s coronavirus infections could have been cut by 66 per cent if the government had implemented its containment measures one week earlier, a study has claimed.
In a population mapping study by WorldPop at Southampton University, researchers ran different outbreak scenarios of China’s mainland cities, and found the time the interventions were introduced had an effect on the speed at which the disease spread.
The team found that China’s 114,325 cases recorded at the end of February could have been 67 times higher without early detection, isolation of infectees, and travel bans.
Further tests concluded that if these precautions were enforced a week earlier, there would be 66 per cent less cases today.
Chinese authorities introduced widespread restrictions on movement in mainland cities around the beginning of February, enforcing ‘closed-off management’, which involves locking down entire areas and limiting activity within them.
Medical staff member disinfects equipment at a ward used to be an isolation ward for patients infected by COVID-19 at a hospital in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province today
They set up 16 temporary coronavirus isolation hospitals, 14 of those in the outbreak epicentre, Wuhan.
‘From a purely scientific standpoint, putting in place a combination of interventions as early as possible is the best way to slow spread and reduce outbreak size,’ Professor Andrew Tatem from the University of Southampton told the Guardian.
The team tested what would have happened if China implemented the restrictions at later dates.
If the People’s Party had started its program of testing, isolation and travel bans three weeks later, cases would have exploded 18-fold, the study said.
For the results, the team used human movement and illness onset to map outbreak scenarios in China’s mainland cities, but they didn’t take political factors, such as economic considerations and disruption caused by the measures.
A nurse checks the temperature of a woman holding an infant at a private maternity hospital today in Wuhan, Hubei, China. China’s crack down response to the virus has been praised by some experts but researchers at the University of Southampton say they may have acted too late
Tatem told the Guardian that early detection and isolation were the most effective at containing the disease.
‘The other two types of interventions, social distancing and travel restrictions, I think do need to be looked at seriously [by the UK] in the coming days,’ he added.
The findings indicate that social distancing, such as working from home and closing schools, and isolation, were more effective than travel bans.
One expert told the Guardian of the need for caution when interpreting the results, which are yet to be peer-reviewed, for the UK.
‘The results themselves should not be interpreted as being universal,’ said Rowland Kao, professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at Edinburgh University.
‘They will of course depend on the individual circumstances of each country or region, where the controls are put in place.’