Coronaphobia could end up thwarting Boris Johnson’s efforts to ease lockdown – as a poll today suggested the public fears the virus far more than immediate economic meltdown.
Exclusive research for MailOnline shows 62 per cent are more worried about the effects of the draconian curbs ending too early, while 38 per cent say their main concern is the havoc they are wreaking on the economy now.
Around seven in 10 believe bus and train drivers, teachers, and medical staff should have the right to refuse to go back to work, even if the government says it is safe.
Some 60 per cent say the state should keep covering a proportion of people’s wages even if in theory they should be able to resume their jobs.
Nearly half say they could even support strike action if people are ordered to get back to work.
Two third also reject the idea that parents who refuse to send their children to school over coronavirus fears should face truancy fines.
The extraordinary findings, in new polling by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, comes as Boris Johnson prepares to take the first steps towards loosening the restrictions.
The shape of the ‘new reality’ Britons face is starting to emerge, with curbs on outdoor activities set to be eased and businesses encouraged to find ways to get back up and running amid social distancing rules.
The lockdown measures are formally due to be extended this evening, after the Cabinet and Cobra meets to consider the desperate crisis gripping the nation. Labour’s Keir Starmer suggested this morning that it must stay in place until testing capacity is much higher – after daily numbers slumped below 100,000 again.
But Mr Johnson is due to announce an ‘exit strategy’ on Sunday laying out immediate ‘easements’ to the misery of combating the deadly disease.
The gravity of the situation the UK faces was underlined today as the Bank of England warned GDP will plunge nearly 30 per cent over the first half of this year, and unemployment could hit 9 per cent.
The overall 14 per cent slump estimated for 2020 would wipe around £300billion off output and represent the worst recession for more than 300 years. Extraordinarily, former chancellor Alistair Darling warned this morning that the Bank might have been too optimistic.
Exclusive research for MailOnline shows 62 per cent are more worried about the effects of the draconian curbs ending too early, while 38 per cent say their main concern is the havoc they are wreaking on the economy now
More than three quarters said they would be behind bus drivers who made the ‘personal decision’ to stay off because of safety fears, with just 16 per cent saying they would not support them
Six in 10 thought the government should continue to subsidise some of the wages of workers who declined to go back, against just 24 per cent who said they would not favour such a move
Boris Johnson made his return to PMQs in the House of Commons on Wednesday after a six week absence. He conceded that the UK’s coronavirus death toll is ‘appalling’ but is set to push ahead with the easing of lockdown restrictions
The stay at home message will be replaced with a ‘be careful when you’re out’ mantra, according to one Cabinet minister, who added that the easing of lockdown will be based on how much each step of the plan affects the rate of infection – or R.
The government is thought to have drawn up a draft 50-page blueprint to gradually ease lockown in staggered steps between now and October.
This blueprint is expected to lead to a five step roadmap to see Britain leave lockdown completely by Autumn – but an ’emergency brake’ could be applied if a second wave of the deadly virus arrives.
However, Mr Johnson faces a battle with Nicola Sturgeon and Labour mayors such as Andy Burnham, who have been warning it is too early for major loosening.
Ms Sturgeon said earlier this week that the outbreak in Scotland is worse than the rest of the county, and insisted yesterday that the UK should move ‘at the same pace’ as the place where infections are worst. The SNP has demanded she must sign off on an exit plan before Mr Johnson unveils it.
In a round of interview this morning, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis frantically tried to play down expectations on the scale of the easing, saying ‘although we believe we are through the peak of this virus we are very cautious to ensure that we don’t get a second peak’.
The poll, carried out online yesterday as part of the Global Health and Governance Opinion project, suggests public resistance will be a major obstacle for the government in the coming weeks and months.
Some 62 per cent said they were most worried about the lockdown being relaxed ‘too quickly’, while 38 per cent said their biggest concern was about the economic impact of the curbs lasting ‘too much longer’.
Even if the government loosened lockdown in line with scientific advice, there was strong support for workers being able to refuse to go back.
More than three quarters said they would be behind bus drivers who made the ‘personal decision’ to stay off because of safety fears, with just 16 per cent saying they would not support them.
The poll found the same for train and Tube drivers by a margin of 69 per cent to 22 per cent, while for teachers it was 71 per cent to 21 per cent. The figure for both doctors and nurses was 73 per cent to 19 per cent.
Six in 10 thought the government should continue to subsidise some of the wages of workers who declined to go back, against just 24 per cent who said they would not favour such a move.
The public was more split over whether people should go on strike if they are told to resume work, with 45 per saying they would endorse the step and 38 per cent against.
Nearly two-third said parents fearing coronavirus should not be punished for refusing to send their children to school when they reopen, against 26 per cent who thought truancy fines would be fair.
Boris Johnson will not announce the ‘exit strategy’ – which is expected to include a five-point plan for easing lockdown – until Sunday
Athlete Tori Beaumont of Brighton, no longer able to train in a gymnasium, uses the fine weather to train on the beach. The government will ease restrictions but urge people to ‘be careful’
The latest Downing Street statistics published today show the UK now has the highest coronavirus death toll in Europe
The number of new cases of coronavirus spiked today, according to the latest Number 10 data, as testing capacity continued to increase
The UK’s coronavirus outbreak remains on a slow downward trajectory after peaking in the middle of last month
The Prime Minister will host a Cobra emergency meeting with leaders in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in the hope of agreeing a UK-wide approach.
He is pushing ahead despite admitting the UK’s official death toll, which surpassed 30,000 yesterday and is the worst in Europe, is ‘appalling’.
Mr Johnson said in the Commons yesterday: ‘We have to be sure the data is going to support our ability to do this.
‘That data is coming in continuously over the next few days. We want, if we possibly can, to get going with some of these measures on Monday.
‘It would be a good thing if the people had an idea of what’s coming the following day, that’s why Sunday, the weekend, is the best time to do it.’
Health Secretary Matt Hancock gave a hint as to what could be expected as he suggested cafes with outdoor seating could be allowed to reopen while Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said the exit plan will look at how a wide range of firms can be ‘adapted’ so they can resume business.
Mr Hancock told Sky News: ‘There is strong evidence that outdoors the spread is much, much lower, so there may be workarounds that some businesses, for instance cafes, especially over the summer, may be able to put into place.’
His comments are likely to prompt questions as to whether pubs could also be allowed to reopen over the summer if they have a beer garden as some chains suggested customers could order rounds using their mobile phones.
Meanwhile, Public Health England is said to have told councils across the country to prepare this weekend to shift away from the government’s current ‘stay home’ message to a new slogan.
Unions have also complained that teachers are being urged to come into schools more to get them ready for a return to work – demanding more clarity on what health and safety protections will be in place.
There have been splits in Cabinet over how quickly to ease the lockdown, with some ‘hawks’ suggesting the economy should be prioritised once it is demonstrated that the NHS can cope with coronavirus cases.
But Mr Lewis said this morning that the mood in government was for ‘caution’.
‘I would say to people that the current Government position is very clear that where you can work from home you should, we should stay home wherever we can,’ he said.
He added: ‘I would just say to people to not get too carried away with what we may be reading and just wait until the Government guidelines and the Prime Minister’s statement.’
Mr Lewis said: ‘I would really urge caution. The safest thing to do at the moment with this virus and the way it spreads is wherever you can stay home.’
The Bank of England today warned that GDP will slump by 14 per cent this year as coronavirus inflicts the worst recession for three centuries.
In a grim assessment, the Bank said the economy could shrink by nearly 30 per cent in the first half of this year before recovering some ground.
But the impact of the deadly disease will continue to be felt long afterwards. Unemployment could hit 9 per cent before falling back again.
The overall 14 per cent fall in output estimated for 2020 would be the biggest recession for more than 300 years.
The Bank says it believes there was a 3 per cent contraction in the first quarter, and sees GDP plummeting by an incredible 25 per cent in the current three month period, before finally clawing back some ground.
Announcing that interest rates have been kept on hold at a record low of 0.1 per cent, Governor Andrew Bailey said it was acting to ease the effects as much as possible and tried to strike a more optimistic tone by saying there would be limited economic ‘scarring’.
The Bank of England today estimated a 14 per cent fall in GDP for 2020 – which would be the biggest recession for 300 years
But in another bleak sign this morning, former Chancellor Alistair Darling warned that the Bank might be too optimistic about the prospects for a quick recovery.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Lord Darling said: ‘I think the Government has to be flexible about the furlough plan because if you’re going to get people to go back to work I think it is highly unlikely they are all going to go back to work on day one.
‘We need to have flexibility so people can go onto short-time work and be gradually reintroduced to their jobs.
‘But can I also make another point which I think is important – I hope like everybody else that many jobs come back and people go back to work, but I think we must plan on the basis that some jobs will not come back, at least they won’t come back at anything like an acceptable rate.
‘And that means the Government has also got to announce a plan for jobs.’
Lord Darling added: ‘What I do think is the Government’s furlough scheme was a very good scheme, it was just what was needed, but it needs to be adapted now.
‘But we have to accept the fact that it will take time for people to go back to work and the economy is not just going to open up like that.
‘I have my doubts about what the Bank of England are saying today about that – it is going to take time.’
In a round of interviews this morning, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said the figures showed the UK faced a ‘very difficult time’.
‘This is going to be a very difficult time for our country, it is a difficult time for countries around the world,’ he said.
‘And that is why it is important that, as we start to look at what the other side of the virus might be, one of the key things for us will be looking at how we can safely ensure that people can start to get back to work so that our economy will have a chance to blossom and grow again in the future and as quickly as possible once we’re the other side of this virus.’
Mr Johnson made his lockdown timing announcement as he returned to the House of Commons for the first time since his recovery from coronavirus.
Wednesday marked the debut clash between Mr Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer as the Labour leader accused the PM of botching the UK’s response to the outbreak.
He said only last week the government had boasted other countries were looking at the ‘apparent success’ of Downing Street’s approach to tackling the virus.
But with the official death toll now above 30,000, Sir Keir asked Mr Johnson: ‘How on Earth did it come to this?’
Mr Johnson tried to deflect the criticism as he insisted now is not the time for international comparisons due to differences in the way countries compile their statistics.
When and how to ease the current draconian lockdown measures has dominated Westminster for weeks as ministers try to figure out how to get Britain back to work.
Referring to his planned address on Sunday, Mr Johnson told MPs at PMQs: ‘I just want to explain to the House as a courtesy why it is happening on a Sunday.
‘The reason for that is very simple, that we have to be sure that the data is going to support our ability to do this.
‘But that data is coming in continuously over the next few days. We will want if we possibly can to get going with some of these measures on Monday.
‘I think it would be a good thing if people had an idea of what is coming the following day, that is why I think Sunday, the weekend, is the best time to do it.’
Mr Jenrick told last night’s Downing Street press conference that the exit plan will look at how workplaces from factories to construction sites to offices can be ‘adapted’ to allow people back to work.
It will also look at how outdoor spaces, including high streets and markets, can be ‘managed’ to allow the return of shoppers.
‘The Prime Minister will set out on Sunday our approach to the second phase of this pandemic and as we look ahead to supporting businesses as they are able to reopen, my department will lead our work on how our local economies can adapt, evolve, recover and grow,’ he said.
The comments came after it was claimed that a ban on exercising more than once a day outside will be one of the first rules to be lifted.
Relaxing rules around outdoor activities is expected to be one of the PM’s first moves because experts believe the risk of transmission of the disease is lower outside than it is inside.