Chelsea have almost a one in three probability of drawing Real Madrid in Monday’s Champions League draw in what would be a blockbuster last-16 clash.
A calculation of the probabilities of each pairing shows how Thomas Tuchel’s side could pay the price for finishing second in their group by drawing the 13-time champions of Europe.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have a marginally higher chance of being matched with Villarreal or Inter Milan in the first knockout round.
Chelsea are most likely to be paired with Real Madrid in the Champions League last-16 with the draw set to be made in Nyon, Switzerland on Monday
Real, who topped their group, have almost a one in three chance of drawing Chelsea next
| Atletico | PSG | Chelsea | Villarreal | Salzburg | Benfica | Inter | Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 14.04 | 13.58 | 21.38 | 14.04 | 11.59 | 0 | 14.04 | 11.36 |
| Real Madrid | 0 | 19.39 | 32.32 | 0 | 16.25 | 16.02 | 0 | 16.02 |
| Manchester City | 18.53 | 0 | 0 | 18.53 | 14.96 | 14.73 | 18.53 | 14.73 |
| Juventus | 18.57 | 17.82 | 0 | 18.57 | 15.21 | 14.91 | 0 | 14.91 |
| Man United | 18.57 | 17.82 | 0 | 0 | 15.21 | 14.91 | 18.57 | 14.91 |
| Liverpool | 0 | 17.82 | 0 | 18.57 | 15.21 | 14.91 | 18.57 | 14.91 |
| Ajax | 14.04 | 13.58 | 21.38 | 14.04 | 11.59 | 11.36 | 14.04 | 0 |
| Lille | 16.25 | 0 | 24.93 | 16.25 | 0 | 13.16 | 16.25 | 13.16 |
| Red indicates highest probability | ||||||||
Manchester United and Manchester City, who like Liverpool topped their groups, have a slightly higher chance of playing Atletico Madrid or Inter Milan next.
The probability calculations, courtesy of MisterChip, come as the 16 remaining sides in Europe’s premier competition await their fate in the draw at 11am on Monday.
The eight group winners – Ajax, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Liverpool, Lille, Manchester City, Manchester United and Real Madrid – will be seeded in the draw.
That means they will be paired with one of the unseeded group runners-up – Atletico Madrid, Benfica, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain, Red Bull Salzburg, Sporting Lisbon and Villarreal.
However, clubs from the same country cannot at this stage of the competition be drawn against one another, so Chelsea will not face Liverpool or the Manchester clubs.
There’s a near 18 per cent chance Manchester United and PSG could be drawn together again
Inter Milan could stand in the way for Liverpool or the two Manchester clubs in the last-16
Clubs that were together in the same group also cannot play each other, so Man United cannot be drawn with Villarreal again for example.
With all that in mind, probabilities of each draw can be made. Some teams have the prospect of being drawn against seven eligible teams, while others have fewer, hence the varying figures.
They show that Chelsea have a 32.315 per cent chance of getting Real, a 24.932 per cent chance of drawing Lille and an equal 21.376 per cent chance of getting Ajax or Bayern Munich.
The reigning champions will no doubt want to avoid getting Bayern, the side that thrashed them 7-1 on aggregate at this stage of the competition in 2019-20 en route to winning the trophy.
But they will feel confident in overcoming Real, having beaten them 3-1 on aggregate to reach last season’s Champions League final.
Chelsea defeated Real Madrid to reach last season’s final of the Champions League
Liverpool are most likely to be drawn against Villarreal or Inter Milan in the knockout round
United have five potential opponents, meaning a more even spread. But by virtue of the same country rule, they have an 18.574 per cent probability of getting Atletico Madrid or Inter Milan.
Their chances of drawing PSG are 17.821 per cent, Salzburg 15.206 per cent and Benfica or Sporting Lisbon 14.913 per cent.
United may wish to steer clear of PSG mainly on the grounds of familiarity – they knocked the French club out at the last-16 stage in 2019 but then finished behind them in last season’s group stage and were eliminated.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have six potential options, with Villarreal and Inter slightly more likely at 18.574 per cent. They have a 17.821 per cent chance of getting PSG.
Manchester City topped their group and are most likely to get Atletico, Villarreal or Inter next
Less likely, according to the calculations, are Salzburg, Benfica or Sporting though these would certainly be the ones wanted by Jurgen Klopp and his team.
City have an equal 18.532 per cent chance of getting Atletico Madrid, Villarreal or Inter and a roughly equal 14 per cent chance of Salzburg, Benfica or Sporting.
The last-16 first legs will be played on February 15/16/22/23 with the return games on March 8/9/15/16.