Shutting schools has little impact on stopping the spread of coronavirus, a new study has claimed.
The team at University College London (UCL) said data on the benefit of school closures during the ongoing pandemic is limited but the impact is likely to be small.
However, Professor Neil Ferguson, whose scientific modelling has informed government thinking, insists school closures play an important role in controlling the spread of the deadly virus.
Schools are in their third week of lockdown, but can still be open to look after the children of key workers. The government is expected to review the decision after the Easter break.
Burbage Primary School in Buxton, Derbyshire, which was forced to close after a pupil’s parent tested positive for the novel coronavirus in late February
The new research was released just a day after Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, played down the prospects of a swift lifting of the coronavirus lockdown.
It comes after droves of people went out and enjoyed the sunshine at the weekend in defiance of the lockdown measures imposed by the Prime Minister.
Academics at UCL looked at 16 studies, some based on the spread of coronavirus, and others based the SARS outbreaks in China, Hong Kong and Singapore.
The findings of the research, published in the Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, suggested that school closures could have an impact during an influenza outbreak, but the same may not apply to coronavirus.
It also said that recent modelling of Covid-19 would only prevent 2 per cent to 4 per cent of deaths.
Professor Neil Ferguson (left) said the new research does not take into account the school closures alongside other measures. Professor Whitty (right) yesterday played down the prospects of a swift lockdown
Professor Russell Viner, one of the report’s authors, said: ‘We know from previous studies that school closures are likely to have the greatest effect if the virus has low transmissibility and attack rates are higher in children. This is the opposite of Covid-19.’
‘Data on the benefit of school closures in the coronavirus outbreak is limited, but what we know shows that their impact is likely to be only small.
‘Additionally, the costs of national school closures are high – children’s education is damaged and their mental health may suffer, family finances are affected. Policymakers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence.’
But Professor Neil Ferguson said the research does not take into account the school closures alongside other measures.
He said: ‘While this new paper reviews some of the modelling our group undertook of school closure for less intensive mitigation, it did not include our results for school closure in combination with other lockdown measures.’
Prof Robert Dingwall, Professor of Sociology, Nottingham Trent University said: ‘This is an important study that confirms what many of us suspected, namely that the public health benefits of school closures were not proportionate to the social and economic costs imposed on children and their families.
‘It also underlines how the assumptions used in modelling the COVID-19 pandemic may rest on very flimsy foundations in terms of scientific evidence.’
It comes after an extensive new survey released by the teachers union NASUWT, found that a significant number of teachers did not have the facilities or information to keep themselves and other safe while working in schools.
The teachers union asked their members if they had been asked to volunteer for any of the following things. Nearly all teachers surveyed have been asked to help during the Easter holidays
Nearly a third (32 per cent) said there was not adequate provision of soap and hot water for handwashing in their school.
Nearly one in four (39 per cent) said they had not been provided with appropriate guidance on maintaining school distancing by their employer and nearly half (48%) reported a lack of adequate arrangements to frequently clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces and objects in their school.
The survey also showed that 98 per cent of teachers said they had been asked to attend school during the Easter holidays.
And that 91 per cent of schools were only partially closed, with only 4 per cent completely closed.
More than two-thirds, 67 per cent, of teachers said they were required to mark work for children who are not in school.
The survey also showed that most members said their school was only partially shut down, rather than fully closed
Chris Keates, NASUWT Acting General Secretary said: ‘At this time of national emergency, teachers are in the frontline of keeping schools open for the children of key workers and vulnerable children whilst also to provide ongoing learning and support for children who are learning at home.
‘It is pleasing to see that the majority of teachers feel they have been treated fairly by their school in the arrangements they have made.
‘However, it is deeply concerning that a smaller, but still significant proportion of schools are failing to protect the health and welfare of their staff.’
She added: ‘One of the mantras to emerge from this period is that ‘we are all in this together’ but the callous and reckless actions of some employers demonstrate that this message is little more than an empty slogan for too many teachers.’
At yesterday’s press conference Professor Chris Whitty said that discussions about moving on to the next stage of the response to the pandemic would be premature until the nation has passed the peak number of deaths.
He downplayed reports that this figure could be reached this weekend as he returned to fronting the daily news conference, following a week in self isolation.
The survey responses indicated that a large proportion of teachers are still required to plan and mark work for children who are not in school
Flanking Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab he also warned people not to expect too much, too soon, from antibody tests that could give those who have had coronavirus and built up immunity, a way to return to normal life.
He said: ‘The key thing is to get to the point where we are confident we have reached the peak and this is now beyond the peak and at that point I think it is possible to have a serious discussion about all the things we need to do step-by-step to move to the next phase of managing this.
‘But I think to start having that discussion until we’re confident that that’s where we’ve got to, would I think be a mistake.’
The UK has declared 439 more deaths caused by the coronavirus today, taking the total to 5,373, and 3,802 new positive tests have pushed the number of patients up to 51,608.
The vast majority of teachers think they have been treated fairly by their employer
Officials have reportedly bought test kits from the Chinese companies Wondo and Alltest but found that they are not accurate enough for official use
He added: ‘We’ve got to remember, just from the health point of view and clearly there are wider social and economic issues as well, that there are at least four different kinds of mortality and ill health we need to take into account over the period of this epidemic.
‘There’s the direct effects of people dying from coronavirus, there’s the indirect effects of the NHS, if it were to become overwhelmed and therefore unable to provide emergency care for either coronavirus or other areas, and all the activities we’re doing at the moment are to make sure that both of those are minimised.
‘But it is really important also to remember that there will be effects from the fact that some healthcare has had to be postponed to make room for this within the NHS and of course anything that has an impact on the socio-economic status, particularly of people who are more deprived, will have a long-term health impact as well and we have to, in our exit strategy, balance all of these different elements which to some extent can be in tension.’
In a glimmer of hope after a dark week for Britain, the number of people dying of COVID-19 has now fallen for two days in a row and today dropped 30 per cent from 621 yesterday.
Today’s death count is the lowest since March 31, last Tuesday, when it was 381, and marks a 39 per cent fall from the UK’s worst day so far, Saturday, when the deaths of 708 people were recorded.
The number of new cases is also lower than it was for almost all of last week, with the 3,802 new positive tests 2,101 fewer than 5,903 yesterday and only the second time since March that the number has been below 4,000.
England accounted for 403 of the fatalities while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland declared 36 more deaths between them over the past day.
Discussing the antibody tests, which would show if someone has has a minor case of the infection and recovered, he said they would will be more effective ‘later in the epidemic’.
Because of the slow way antibodies are generated and the relatively small percentage of the population likely to have caught coronavirus so far, the tests are currently of limited use, he told the daily press conference.
It came after another top scientist checking the tests for the Government said it could be a month before a workable one is available.
Professor Sir John Bell, from Oxford University, said the testing kits he has examined so far ‘have not performed well’ and ‘none of them would meet the criteria for a good test’.
Addressing the public this afternoon Prof Whitty, an epidemiologist, said: ‘At this point in time we would expect quite a small proportion of the population has probably got antibodies.
‘There’s two reasons for that. There’s the proportion actually infected and then there’s a period of time between somebody getting an infection and antibodies being routinely detectable.
‘And it depends which kind of antibody you’re talking about how soon that is.
‘Most of the labs that have looked at this would say 21 to 28 days would be the kind of timescale you’d be talking about.
‘They do tend to be more effective later in the epidemic.’
Downing Street said today it will seek refunds from companies that cannot improve the failed antibody tests ordered by the Government.
‘No test so far has proved to be good enough to use,’ the PM’s official spokesman said, raising accuracy concerns.
‘We continue to work with the testing companies, we’re in a constant dialogue with them and we give feedback to them when their products fail to meet the required standards.
‘If the tests don’t work then the orders that we placed will be cancelled and wherever possible we will recover the costs.’
The head of testing at Public Health England also said none of the tests it had evaluated were good enough for public use.
Professor John Newton, director of health improvement at Public Health England, said the tests were not accurate enough on people who had only had mild illnesses.
Addressing the public this afternoon after completing his own coronavirus self-isolation, Prof Whitty, an epidemiologist, said: ‘At this point in time we would expect quite a small proportion of the population has probably got antibodies
The tests are considered to be crucial to ending Britain’s nationwide lockdown because they will give authorities a clear picture of how many people have caught the virus already and shaken it off.
Currently, statistical guesswork is the only way of working out how many people might already be immune and therefore potentially safe to return to normal life.
Estimates suggest up to five million people could have been infected to date.
Number 10 tonight confirmed that Boris Johnson had been moved to intensive care in St Thomas’ hospital after being admitted for tests last night as a precaution.
A spokesperson said Dominic Raab would deputise for him as his ‘persistent’ coronavirus symptoms worsen.